Tesla has reduced its forecast for 2026 capital expenditures, according to its third-quarter 10-Q filing. The company now expects spending "to be in excess of $20 billion in 2026," compared with the "more than $25 billion" figure it had given since April.
The revision appeared in the 10-Q filed Wednesday, not in the shareholder letter released the same day. The filing came in a quarter when Tesla posted $1.53 billion in positive free cash flow, a result that depended heavily on timing.
The guidance has shifted several times this year. Tesla began 2026 pointing to roughly $20 billion in capex, raised that to more than $25 billion in April, and had it reiterated in July by CFO Vaibhav Taneja, while Elon Musk described 2026 as a "massive capex year." Spending so far totals $13.01 billion: $2.49 billion in the first quarter, $5.79 billion in the second and $4.73 billion in the third. Reaching $25 billion would have required about $12 billion in the fourth quarter alone, more than double its largest quarter to date. The new floor requires about $7 billion.
The filing says 2026 spending is driven by the company's "SI initiatives," including compute infrastructure and data centers, along with factory ramps and its fleet of "company-operated SI-enabled assets." It also shows that $3.67 billion of equipment and construction costs was recorded in liabilities at the end of September but not yet paid, up from $2.63 billion at the end of June and $1.63 billion a year earlier. Actual spending is therefore running ahead of the cash capex Tesla reports.
Tesla reported $6.26 billion in operating cash flow in the quarter. A $2.59 billion working capital contribution was significant: without it, free cash flow would have been about negative $1.06 billion. Accounts payable rose $1.92 billion and accrued liabilities rose $1.95 billion, including $722 million more in accrued purchases, meaning goods received but not yet invoiced.
A further $1.26 billion came from deferred revenue, mostly energy storage, where the balance rose to $3.30 billion from $2.31 billion. Not all of it is cash: Tesla disclosed that it billed SpaceX $588 million for Megapacks that have not been delivered, and SpaceX had not paid at quarter-end. The amount appears in both deferred revenue and accounts receivable, which rose $565 million. Prepaid expenses and other assets increased $1.82 billion, partly offsetting the gains. Counting the $1.03 billion rise in unpaid capex, free cash flow on an "as spent" basis was closer to $500 million.
The change follows by about a month Tesla's signing of $30 billion in new credit facilities. They consist of a $20 billion delayed-draw term loan maturing in 2029 and $10 billion of revolving credit that replaces a $5 billion facility. Neither had been drawn at quarter-end, when Tesla held $45.4 billion in cash and investments.
Electrek, which first reported the details, said the accounting practices involved are not improper and were disclosed, but that they make the headline free cash flow figure less meaningful. It noted that operating income of $718 million was lower than $1.17 billion in stock compensation, and that the timing benefits will reverse as invoices come due and Megapacks ship. The outlet said the lowered target suggests either that projects are slipping into 2027 or that Tesla is spending less to protect cash, and argued the company should say which.
