Aides in the Trump White House have started looking for someone to blame in case Republicans suffer heavy losses in the midterm elections, according to sources familiar with the matter. The party faces grim forecasts in key House and Senate races, and the search for a scapegoat is beginning unusually early.
Privately, Republican political operatives say the real responsibility lies with President Donald Trump, the sources say. They point to his decision to start the Iran war in an election year, which they say pushed prices higher across the board and set off a nationwide backlash among voters. "Clearly it's the president's fault," one operative said.
Aides cannot say so in public, and cannot tell the president privately that his own policy choices are to blame, even as they weigh the possibility of losing the House majority and perhaps the Senate as well. According to the sources, attention has instead settled on James Blair, a deputy chief of staff and political strategist.
Blair organized the turnout strategy for Trump's 2024 campaign and returned to that role for this midterm cycle. Among his marquee efforts was a plan for certain states to redraw their congressional maps early. The approach looked likely, though not certain, to produce favorable House seats for Republicans, provided the coalition Trump mobilized in 2024 turned out again in 2026.
Even with the Iran war factored in, the redistricting push was expected to deliver roughly 10 to 15 House pickups. After Virginia's top court blocked Democrats from redrawing maps to keep pace, Blair wrote on X: "Lord grant me humility." Five months later, election forecasters say some of the redrawn seats now lean toward Democrats.
The new map for Florida's 25th congressional district, just south of Fort Lauderdale, is now rated "Lean Democrat." The outlook is so poor that the Congressional Leadership Fund, a House Republican-aligned group, has withdrawn money from the race. In Texas, maps drawn to favor Republicans have also become vulnerable, including in seats held by incumbents. The Cook Political Report now rates the race of GOP candidate Monica De La Cruz in the 15th district a "tossup."
Blair's allies inside and outside the West Wing call the criticism grossly unfair. They argue he could not have anticipated the effects of the Iran war or the scandals involving Trump officials, both of which upended his planning.
Blair is also seen as retaining the confidence of Trump and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, and he flew on Air Force One to two rallies in the past week. That suggests any blame directed at him could end up being largely symbolic. When he left the White House earlier this year to run Trump's midterm strategy from outside, the president described the move as temporary and said Blair would return after the election.
In a statement, Blair said that "the President, our partners in the House and Senate, and I remain focused on winning in November," adding that all Republicans should be "spending themselves equally in our worthy cause." White House spokesperson Danielle Alvarez said, "The anonymous 'sources' peddling this nonsense are self-serving opportunists focused on themselves. We're focused on the President and the American people."
Sources close to Trump also said that if Wiles leaves after the midterms, it will be entirely her own choice, despite reports that she has come under fire. Aides concede that much of the finger-pointing is preemptive. Expectations are so low that if Republicans score some wins, such as keeping the Senate, Blair would be "seen as a savior," one source said. Still, the sources added, Blair openly owned the House midterm strategy, which may have made him an easy target.
